Poveikis atmestas 2052 m., nes Europos kosmoso agentūra (ESA) pradeda atgalinį skaičiavimą iki Asteroido dienos

Kaip tik laiku Pasaulinei asteroidų dienai: pavojuje esanti kosminė uola, kuri jau mėnesius buvo rizikos sąrašų viršūnėje visame pasaulyje, turinti realią galimybę 2052 m. balandžio 2 d. atsitrenkti į Žemę. Dabar dirba Europos kosmoso agentūros asteroidų komanda. su Pietų Europos observatorijos ekspertais ([{” attribute=””>ESO) has officially removed ‘2021 QM1’ from their asteroid risk list, a result of skilled observations and analysis of the faintest asteroid ever observed with one of the most sensitive telescopes ever constructed.

With Asteroid Day Live 2022 set for June 30, we can safely say that the riskiest asteroid known to humankind in the last year will not impact the Earth – at least not for the next century.

What was it like to track this asteroid? Get the full story in ESA’s fascinating behind-the-scenes look at how European experts handle asteroid risks in the official countdown to Asteroid Day live on June 30, airing at 10:25 CEST on AsteroidDay.org and via ESA WebTV.

Asteroid 2021 QM1, once thought to have a chance of impacting Earth in 2052, was spotted passing through a region of the sky with the Milky Way just behind it. The small, faint, receding asteroid had to be found against a backdrop of thousands of stars, with red crosses indicating the path of the object. Credit: ESO/O. Hainaut

Impact 2052

2021 QM1 was first discovered on August 28, 2021, by the Mount Lemmon Observatory, located north of Tucson, Arizona. At the beginning, nothing stood out as unusual about the discovery – about a dozen new near-Earth asteroids are identified every dark night. Routine follow-up observations were subsequently acquired from telescopes around the globe, but these began to tell a more worrying story.

“These early observations gave us more information about the asteroid’s path, which we then projected into the future,” said Richard Moissl, ESA’s Head of Planetary Defense.

“We could see its future paths around the Sun, and in 2052 it could come dangerously close to Earth. The more the asteroid was observed, the greater that risk became.”

Svarbu pažymėti, kad orbitos skaičiavimai, pagrįsti tik kelių naktų stebėjimais, yra tam tikro neapibrėžtumo, todėl asteroidai dažnai įtraukiami į ESA rizikos sąrašą iš karto po jų atradimo, o vėliau pašalinami, kai surenkama daugiau duomenų, ir neapibrėžtumas. sumažinti tikrumą. , ir asteroidas pasirodė saugus. Šia proga tai nebuvo įmanoma.

Nelaimingas kosminis derinimas

Atrodo, kad pavojui didėjant, įvyko tobulas kosminis išsidėstymas: asteroido kelias priartino jį prie Saulės, žiūrint iš Žemės, o dėl mūsų žvaigždės šeimininkės ryškaus švytėjimo kelis mėnesius nebuvo įmanoma jį pamatyti.

Netrukus po atradimo skrieja aplink 2021 QM1, kai jis praskrieja arti Saulės danguje, žiūrint iš Žemės. Kreditas: ESA

„Mes tiesiog turėjome palaukti“, – paaiškino Marco Micheli, Europos kosmoso agentūros Near-Earth Object Coordination Center (NEOCC) astronomas.

„Tačiau norėdami sustabdyti dalykus, sužinojome, kad 2021 m. QM1 taip pat tolsta nuo Žemės savo dabartine orbita, o tai reiškia, kad tuo metu, kai jis išnyko nuo saulės akinimo, jis gali būti per silpnas, kad būtų aptiktas.

Jie laukdami ruošėsi.

Pirmenybė teikiama prieigai prie vieno galingiausių teleskopų Žemėje

Europos pietinė observatorija Labai didelis teleskopas (VLT) Jis buvo paruoštas ir paruoštas. Kai 50 metrų aukščio asteroidas nutols nuo saulės šviesos – ir oro sąlygos leis – ESO VLT nukreips savo 8 metrų veidrodį į nykstančias uolas.

Jaudinantis mėnulio spiečius už ESO labai didelio teleskopo (VLT), Čilė. Mėnuliui nusileidus, saulė ruošiasi pakilti priešingame horizonte. Labai didelis teleskopas (VLT) po ilgos stebėjimų nakties jau užsimerkė, teleskopų operatoriai ir astronomai miega, o dienos technikai, inžinieriai ir astronomai keliasi naujai darbo dienai. Operacijos niekada nesibaigia produktyviausioje pasaulyje Astronomijos observatorijoje. Kreditas: G.Gillet / ESO

„Turėjome trumpą langą stebėti mūsų pavojingą asteroidą“, – aiškino ESO astronomas Olivier Hainaut.

„Būtent dar blogiau, jis praėjo per tam tikrą dangaus sritį[{” attribute=””>Milky Way just behind. Our small, faint, receding asteroid would have to be found against a backdrop of thousands of stars. These would turn out to be some of the trickiest asteroid observations we have ever made”.

Faintest asteroid ever observed

Over the night of May 24, ESO’s VLT took a series of new images. The data arrived and Olivier and Marco began to process them, stacking subsequent observations on top of each other and removing the background stars: it took some time.

ESO’s Very Large Telescope captures 2021 QM1 which for months topped risk lists around the globe. This pivotal sighting ruled out Earth impact in the year 2052. Over the night of May 24, the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope took a series of images of an asteroid that had topped risk lists around the globe for months. These images were some of the trickiest asteroid experts had taken, as the faint asteroid 2021 QM1 receded from view against a very starry backdrop. A series of images were processed, stacked on top of each other and stars were removed, revealing the faintest asteroid observed. Credit: ESA

The result? A positive detection of the faintest asteroid ever observed. With a magnitude of 27 on the scale used by astronomers to describe the brightness of objects in the sky, 2021 QM1 was 250 million times fainter than the faintest stars visible to the naked eye from a dark spot. (In this astronomical scale of visible magnitudes, the brighter an object appears the lower the value of its magnitude, while the brightest objects reach negative values, e.g. the Sun is magnitude -27).

Olivier was certain this small blur was in fact an asteroid, and Marco was certain that given its location, it was our asteroid.

Safe at last?

With these new observations, our risky asteroid’s path was refined, ruling out an impact in 2052, and 2021 QM1 was removed from ESA’s risk list. Another 1,377 remain.

The position of each asteroid at 12:00 CEST on June 13, 2022, is plotted. Each asteroid is a segment representing its motion over 10 days. Inner bodies move faster around the Sun (yellow circle at the center). Blue represents the inner part of the Solar System, where the Near Earth Asteroids, Mars crossers, and terrestrial planets are. The Main Belt, between Mars and Jupiter, is green. The two orange ‘clouds’ correspond to the Trojan asteroids of Jupiter. Credit: © ESA/Gaia/DPAC; CC BY-SA 3.0 IGO, Acknowledgments: P. Tanga (Observatoire de la Côte d’Azur)

More than one million asteroids have been discovered in the Solar System, almost 30 000 of which pass near Earth, with many more expected to be out there. ESA’s Planetary Defence Office, NEOCC and astronomers around the globe are looking up to keep us safe, working together to ensure we know well in advance if an asteroid is discovered on a collision course.

Watch Asteroid Day Live

How worried are the world’s asteroid experts? How did it feel to track humankind’s most risky asteroid? Get the full story in ESA’s 30-minute program counting down to Asteroid Day live on June 30, airing at 10:25 CEST on AsteroidDay.org and on ESA WebTV.

Fallen trees at Tunguska, Imperial Russia, seen in 1929, 15 km from epicenter of the aerial blast site, caused by the explosion of a meteor in 1908. Credit: Photo N. A. Setrukov, 1928

Asteroid Day is the United Nations-sanctioned day of public awareness of the risks of asteroid impacts, held annually on June 30. This year sees its return to Luxembourg for an in-person event following two years of living entirely in the virtual realm. Asteroid experts from ESA, from across Europe and worldwide will converge on the city to take part in a packed four-hour live program of panels and one-on-one interviews.